WNBA Picks
We’ve got our first taste of the parity of this year’s WNBA, as Caitlin Clark and the Fever dropped a home game against Atlanta – who had just gotten pounded by Phoenix without Kahleah Copper. That was the first, but certainly won’t be the last upset of its kind this season. Wednesday night has a tripleheader headlined by Paige Bueckers and Dallas heading to Minnesota for a rematch with the Lynx.
Let’s dive in to each matchup and see where TSI indicates there’s betting value on the Wednesday slate for WNBA picks:
Minnesota Lynx (-11.5) vs Dallas Wings, O/U 168.5
Bueckers got a quick and not-so-warm welcome to the WNBA on opening night as the Dallas Wings lost by 15 the first time these teams met. Minnesota won its next game and is 2-0 while Dallas dropped its next one to Seattle and is 0-2 – good for our season win total Under bet.
Recreational books foolishly opened this line somewhere around Minnesota -9, but sharper books opened Minnesota -11.5, and that’s stayed put for the most part but does seem to be heading to 12 sooner than later. The total opened at 168 and has been between 167.5 and 169.5, depending on where you’re shopping. TSI projects Lynx -12 with a total of 167, so not much value to be garnered at the current numbers overall, but there is one book still sitting at 169.5, so if you have access to that I’d take the Under.
Pick: Under 169.5 or better
Golden State Valkyries vs Washington Mystics (-5.5), O/U 161.5
I don’t think any team has surprised me more so far this season than Washington in their two games; they’ve averaged 90 points per game so far and have looked anything but like a team who’s supposed to be rebuilding, and that’s without last year’s top 10 pick, Aaliyah Edwards, who is out with an injury.
This line opened Washington -5.5 and has bounced between 5.5 and 6, while the total opened 161.5 and has been everywhere between 161 and 163. TSI projects Mystics -5 with a total of 164, and honestly I don’t think projections or the market have caught up to Washington’s scoring prowess yet, so I’m betting the Over here.
Pick: Over 161.5 (Play to 162.5)
Phoenix Mercury (-5.5) vs LA Sparks, O/U 163.5
Kahleah Copper is expected to miss a couple weeks for Phoenix with a knee injury, and LA’s Rickea Jackson is expected to miss this game as well. LA came out of the gates strong against Golden State and Kelsey Plum set the WNBA record for points in a debut. Phoenix, meanwhile, pounded Seattle as 6 point underdogs, so we’ll find out if that was flukey or if they’re just much better than anticipated. The spread has been between 5 and 6 after opening at 5.5, while the total opened 162.5, got to 162 and has steadily remained around 163.5 since.
TSI projects Phoenix -3 with a total of 162 (not accounting for Jackson). I think with the injuries to both sides and lack of reliable data points so early in the season, I’m going to pass here.
Advice: Pass
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