On Sunday, June 8th, tennis fans will be treated to the first ever Grand Slam final between Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner. The two are set to square off on Court Philippe-Chatrier, where Alcaraz is looking to win his second French Open title in a row. However, the Spaniard is going to have his work cut out for him here. Sinner has won each of the last two majors, and he might have added a little hair to his chest with a win over 24-time Grand Slam champion Novak Djokovic in the semifinals. Now, the world No. 1 will be looking to snap a four-match losing streak against his rival, and I personally can’t wait to watch him try. Let’s get into the matchup with an Alcaraz versus Sinner betting preview below.
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Carlos Alcaraz vs. Jannik Sinner Odds
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook accurate as of Friday, June 6th at 10:30 pm ET. Shop around for the best prices!
Moneyline: Alcaraz -115, Sinner -110
Spread: Alcaraz -1.5 Games (+100), Sinner +1.5 Games (-135)
Total: Over 40.5 Games (-115), Under 40.5 Games (-115)
How To Watch Carlos Alcaraz vs. Jannik Sinner
Where: Stade Roland Garros in Paris, France
When: Sunday, June 8th
Channel: TNT / HBO Max
Carlos Alcaraz vs. Jannik Sinner Predictions
How much does a head-to-head edge really matter? That’s an important question entering Sunday’s final between Alcaraz and Sinner. The Spaniard has won four straight in this rivalry, including two that feel especially relevant to Sunday’s clash. One of them was a 2-6, 6-3, 3-6, 6-4, 6-3 win for Alcaraz in last year’s Roland Garros semifinals, and the other was a 7-6 (5), 6-1 Alcaraz win in the finals in Rome last month. Alcaraz has now beaten Sinner in their last two matches on slower clay, and many believe this is the surface in which the Spaniard will continue to have the Italian’s number. There is, however, some important context to point out when looking at the last two matches.
Heading into last year’s French Open semifinals, Sinner was coming off a pretty lengthy injury layoff. The Italian missed a good portion of the clay-court season with a bad hip, and his fitness wasn’t totally there when he got back — nor was the level he started the 2024 season with. The final in Rome a few weeks ago put Sinner in a tricky spot as well. The 23-year-old wasn’t injured — outside of a blister on his foot — but that was his first tournament back after a three-month doping suspension. Sure, he looked awesome on his way to getting to the final, and his body was undoubtedly fresh after having not played real matches. But playing real matches is how you build match fitness, and it’s also how you get comfortable in key situations. Alcaraz was the fitter player — and he handled the big points better.
This time around, Sinner has had more time on court to sharpen his game, and he has played some huge points to better himself situationally. Just look at the semifinals. Djokovic didn’t look like some washed-up 38-year-old punching bag out there. The 24-time Grand Slam champion was playing dynamite tennis heading into that match, and he landed 71% of his first serves against Sinner. Well, that wasn’t enough. Sinner broke Djokovic three times, despite the fact that the Serbian was bringing the heat. He also won seven more rallies of nine-plus shots than Djokovic. That’s a big sign heading into Sunday.
There will undoubtedly be a ton of haymakers when these two take the court, but Alcaraz does want to get into some long rallies. He’s going to trust that his legs and variety will ultimately give him the nod over the Italian. But Sinner should be very confident that he has what it takes to grind with Alcaraz a little here. Djokovic was the ultimate practice for that.
I also just can’t weigh the Rome final too much. While Alcaraz played extremely well in that match, Sinner was poor in a lot of areas you’d expect him to be great. One of the most glaring issues was the serve. Sinner landed just 60.3% of his first serves in that Rome final, and he’s capable of doing much better than that. He had actually made at least 65% of his first serves in three straight matches before running into Alcaraz. Also, Sinner was lousy with his first serve against Djokovic in the semis here, making only 51% of them. Some positive regression should be coming.
We also saw Sinner’s forehand — the biggest baseline weapon in tennis — let him down in Rome. In that final, TennisViz and Tennis Data Innovations gave Sinner a forehand Shot Quality of 7.6. That ‘fearhand’ usually hovers around 8.9, and the 7.6 in Rome was his second-worst showing since 2024. Well, there’s a lot that could potentially go wrong for Sinner in the final, but I’m not sure another rough forehand day is one of them.
Of course, Alcaraz deserves credit for finding ways to make Sinner uncomfortable. The Spaniard does it with heavy topspin, well-timed slices and an uncanny ability to keep the Italian guessing. Whether that’s by changing up the height or speed of the ball he’s feeding Sinner, hitting dropshots or coming to the net, Alcaraz rarely lets the Italian feel like he’s playing with any sort of pattern. He keeps Sinner on his toes, making it hard for him to relax and obliterate balls from the back of the court.
The problem is that Sinner really is a much cleaner ball striker than Alcaraz, and he’s also more reliable. If he’s playing the way he’s capable of playing, it might not matter how much more comfortable Alcaraz is on the dirt. There’s no beating Sinner when he’s at his very best.
In Rome, it felt like Alcaraz pitched a no-hitter, making smart decisions nearly from start to finish. That’s not something you can expect out of the erratic Spaniard very often. His decision-making is often his biggest weakness. And you know what? Sinner still had two set points in Set 1, and the outcome could have been entirely different if he converted.
Additionally, it feels like Sinner has gotten better on clay over the last two weeks. Sinner has looked like the best player in Paris so far, as he hasn’t yet dropped a set, and he has straight-up embarrassed some very good players. Jiri Lehecka and Andrey Rublev, two extremely talented players, looked like children against the Italian. And as previously mentioned, an in-form Djokovic wasn’t even able to steal a set from Sinner.
It’s just clear that Sinner is moving a little better in and out of corners, and he’s simply getting a better feel for how to overwhelm opponents in these conditions. On top of that, Sinner has changed up his return position, opening up his stance to be a little more aggressive and in rhythm when serves go to his forehand side. He’s also daring opponents to go down the T, and the changes really feel like they were made with Alcaraz in mind. The Spaniard likes to serve to his opponent’s forehand side on big points.
Realistically, I just think Sinner is the better player than Alcaraz, especially with the Spaniard having played some poor sets in Paris over the last two weeks. And when you combine that with the fact that Sinner will be motivated to snap this losing streak against his rival, it’s hard not to suggest a play on the Italian at the current price. I’ll also add that Sinner’s team appears to be a little better than Alcaraz’s when it comes to game planning, making adjustments and being aggressive with any matchup-specific tweaks. Simone Vagnozzi and Darren Cahill rarely steer the 23-year-old incorrectly, and I’m not sure the same can be said for Juan Carlos Ferrero and Alcaraz. For every brilliant game plan like the one against Sinner in Rome, there’s a head-scratcher — like the one against Jack Draper in Indian Wells.
I’m just not in the business of turning Sinner down at plus-money odds, even when there’s seemingly plenty working against him. And honestly, while I’m a big believer in hedging, I’m not touching the 2-unit play I have on Sinner to win the tournament at +250 — which was in my Roland Garros futures piece. I have a lot of faith in the Italian showing up and exacting revenge. Four in a row is hard to ignore, but so is the fact that Sinner might finally be in the right place, at the right time, with the right tools.
Strong Lean: Sinner ML (+107 – 2 units)
