Edmonton Oilers at Dallas Stars (-135, 5.5)
Edmonton leads series 3-1
8 p.m. ET
Tonight marks the 21st game of this year’s Stanley Cup Playoffs, where we may see handshakes after the game. The Oilers are one win away from a Stanley Cup rematch with the Florida Panthers. In 16 of the previous 20 games, we have had at least two goals scored in the third period (seven times there have been three goals or more). In six of the last eight and 14 of the 20 games, the team to win the game has covered the puck line (-1.5 goals). Twelve of the 20 games have featured an empty net goal.
One of the craziest numbers of these playoffs involves the Dallas Stars. When they lose, it’s by a wide margin. All eight of the Stars’ playoff losses this year have been by three goals or more. Combine that with the fact that the last 10 playoff games and 19 of 21 overall have been decided by two goals or more. Before last night’s Panthers’ win (5-3), the previous nine playoff games had been decided by three goals or more. Daily readers of this column will know that I will continue to play puck lines and not money lines when wagering on the team I feel will win the game. Up until recently, I was playing the (-1.5) goals for both teams to win the game with the rationale that you are getting “plus money” on both bets, and you will make a profit if we don’t have a one-goal game.
Other trends to look at. Stuart Skinner is on a 13-1 run in games 4-7 of a series. Skinner has given up two or fewer goals in 13 of the games. Dallas team total under 2.5 (+154) makes a heck of a lot of sense to me. On the other side, our friends over at BetMGM offer “flat” numbers on totals. I will take the Edmonton Oilers team total at Over 3 (+105) and a smaller play at Over 3.5 goals (+172, available at FanDuel).
On to some player props. With the Oilers’ Zach Hyman done for the playoffs, Corey Perry should see a boost in his ice time. Perry is expected to start out on the top line with McDavid and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins. I will parlay the trio to all record a point tonight.
I will also be on Perry to score a goal. Yesterday, Bet365 had Perry at (+500) for an anytime goal but has now properly adjusted his price to (+375). I was able to grab him last night at (+500), but I still like the current price for a player getting time on the top line and number one power play.
Sticking with Nugent-Hopkins, he has had four consecutive multi-point games. I will take a shot at him making it five in a row tonight. I will also be coming back with McDavid, Draisaitl and Nugent-Hopkins to each record at least two shots on goal. The “Nuge” has had at least two shots on goal in 11 of his last 13 playoff games, McDavid is a perfect 15 for 15 in the playoffs hitting this number, and Leon has cashed the Over 1.5 shots on goal in 14 of 15 games in this year’s postseason. Evander Kane gets the bump to the second line with Leon Draisaitl and Kasperi Kapanen.
The Stars’ Jason Robertson has found his groove with goals in back-to-back games and has now had 11 shots (5,4,2) on goal in his last three games after being held without a shot in his previous two games. I gave Robertson Over 1.5 shots in Game Four and will climb the ladder in Game Five (Over 2.5 and 3.5 as well).
The last one for me involves the last goal of the game, a market that I have never delved into prior to tonight. Connor Brown leads the Oilers in the playoffs, scoring the last goal of their games four times. With Brown out, I will go with Leon Draisaitl, who has scored the final goal twice in this year’s playoffs and is regularly on the ice when the Oilers are protecting a lead in the final minutes.
On the Dallas side, Mikko Rantanen has one of three empty-net goals in the postseason. Rantanen, Roope Hintz and Mikael Granlund have been the forward trio that Pete DeBoer has put on the ice to protect a one or two-goal lead in the final minute.
There is still no confirmation on whether Mattias Ekholm returns tonight for Edmonton.
Game Five Predictions:
Edmonton Oilers -1.5 goals (+250) – .50 units
Edmonton Oilers -2.5 goals (+450) – .25 units
Dallas Stars -1.5 goals (+186) – .50 units
Edmonton Oilers Team Total Over 3 (+105) – .50 units
Edmonton Oilers Team Total Over 3.5 (+172) – .25 units
Dallas Stars Team Total Under 2.5 (+154) – .25 units
Nugent-Hopkins/McDavid/Draisaitl Over 1.5 SOG (-102) – 1.5 units
Nugent-Hopkins/McDavid/Draisaitl each Over ½ point (+116) – .50 units
Corey Perry anytime goal (+375) – .10 units
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Over 1.5 points (+350) – .15 units
Evander Kane Over 2.5 SOG (+120) – .25 units
Jason Robertson Over 1.5 SOG (-200) – 1 unit
Jason Robertson Over 2.5 SOG (+145) – .25 units
Jason Robertson Over 3.5 SOG (+400) – .15 units
