Edmonton Oilers and Florida Panthers (-140, 6.5)
Series tied 1-1
8 p.m. ET
If history means anything, a win tonight by the Edmonton Oilers would go a long way in their chances of becoming Stanley Cup Champions. When the best-of-seven Stanley Cup Final is tied 1-1, the winner of Game Three holds an all-time series record of 23-7. As a franchise, the Oilers are 10-0 when leading two games to one when starting a seven-game series at home in the Stanley Cup Playoffs. Florida is 2-0 when leading, taking a 2-1 series lead after starting on the road.
The big news heading into tonight’s game three is that Edmonton could be without forward Ryan Nugent-Hopkins. Nugent-Hopkins did not practice on Sunday and was replaced by Jeff Skinner on the Oilers’ top line with Connor McDavid and Corey Perry. Oilers coach Kris Knoblauch said that Nugent-Hopkins is a game-time decision, though “The Nudge” was on the ice for the morning skate today. One lineup change for the Florida Panthers: AJ Greer slots back in for Jesper Boqvist. Greer missed the first two games of the series due to injury.
The first two games of the Cup Final have been great for Over bettors. The first period Over (along with both teams to score), second period Over and full game Over have cashed in each game. It was only the third period that we had just one goal in each of the first two games. With the scene shifting to South Florida and warmer temperatures (91 degrees Fahrenheit and 48% humidity), there is a good chance that the outside temperature could play havoc.
In last year’s Cup Final, three of the four games in Florida had five combined goals or fewer. Compare that to the three games in Edmonton that all had six goals or more (7,9,6). There were also fewer shots on goal in the games played in Florida than in Edmonton (48.7 to 59.4). I personally don’t have the “stones” to play the Under 6.5, but I will lay off playing the Over for tonight’s game three. I will stick to my guns and play each team to cover the (-1.5) goals. The run of 11 straight playoff games and 20 of 24 being decided by two or more goals has hit a roadblock to start the series, but I am still confident that tonight will have at least a two-goal margin for the winning team. Overtime is always a possibility, but the odds of three straight overtime games are not likely.
On to the player props. Edmonton’s Evander Kane has been a hitting machine, registering five hits or more in eight consecutive games. Mattias Ekholm’s streak of eight straight games with two or more blocked shots came to an end in Game Two, but I am willing to give him another chance to do us right.
Corey Perry‘s eight goals are second only to Leon Draisaitl’s 10. Getting time on the top line and number one power play, his price (+325 at Bet365) is too good to pass up. I don’t mind Draisaitl’s (+125) anytime goal price, but I like his price to score the first Edmonton goal (+400 available at Fan Duel) even better. He has scored the first Edmonton goal on the road in three of the nine Oilers Road games. You can also play him to score a first-period goal (+500 available at FanDuel). Evan Bouchard has had 15 shots on goal in the first two games. While overtime has helped to inflate those numbers, he did surpass his prop of Over 2.5 shots on goal both times in regulation.
The Panthers’ Sam Bennett and Brad Marchand are tied for the team lead with three goals in the series. The one concern for me with Bennett is that 12 of his 13 goals have come on the road. Evan Rodrigues has a pair of assists in the series, and his 12 for the playoffs are tied with Matthew Tkachuk for the team lead. Nate Schmidt, of all players, leads the Panthers with four points (all assists) after the first two games.
Game Three Predictions:
Evander Kane Over 4.5 hits (-165) – .25 units
Mattias Ekholm Over 1.5 blocked shots (-145) – .25 units
Corey Perry anytime goal (+325) – .10 units
Leon Draisaitl anytime goal (+125) – .10 units
Leon Draisaitl 1st Edmonton goal of the game (+400) – .10 units
Evan Bouchard Over 2.5 shots on goal (-125) – .25 units
Brad Marchand Over ½ point (-105) – .25 units
Evan Rodrigues Over ½ assist (+164) – .25 units
Nate Schmidt Over ½ assist (+260) – .25 units
Edmonton Oilers -1.5 goals (+265) – .50 units
Florida Panthers -1.5 goals (+172) – .50 units
