MLB Bullpen Betting Systems Update for May 26

MLB Bullpen Betting Systems Update for May 26:

In conversing with VSiN subscribers over the last few years, I know many bettors have taken a liking to certain betting systems I offer in the various sports above others. It’s natural, and to be quite honest, I don’t love every angle I present the same either. The variation could be from the degree of success, the simplicity, or for someone like me, the foundational merits, but whatever the case, I always encourage bettors to follow their gut on these things and use whatever they prefer best. 

Along those lines, over the last few years, I know that VSiN readers have come to know and love my Better Bullpen Underdog systems that I offer on this systems update every Monday. For those that did stick with the thought process through what was a difficult start to the season, congratulations, we are back in the black for the first time after what has been a tremendous month of May. I’m here now to give more details on that and update all of the system records, stats, and ratings for the MLB Bullpen Systems.

As I just indicated, the month of May has been an amazing one for the two MLB Bullpen Systems that focus on backing teams with better bullpen ratings and playing as underdogs. I personally feel these are very solid foundational angles in that I believe oddsmakers don’t put enough precedence on bullpen strength when creating daily odds. In many cases, the bullpens account for four or more innings in a game, nearly half the contests. Shouldn’t this factor be given half of the pitching consideration? In my opinion, they aren’t, and this “miss” can offer a lot of opportunity for bettors to back solid teams in underdog roles. 

There are two different better bullpen underdog systems I offer, and the only difference is in the line range. I have found historically that underdogs of +145 or higher aren’t usually as successful as the smaller underdogs, perhaps for good reason, as they are probably overwhelmed a bit more in terms of the starting pitching or lineup in a given game. In any case, the numbers differ a bit this year, but after four straight winning weeks for both angles, the overall underdog system is now back at +2.27 units for the season, while the smaller underdog angle closed to -2.43 units. Since the beginning of May, all underdogs with better Steve Makinen bullpen ratings in a game are on an amazing 67-52 run for +24.4 units and an ROI of 20.5%!

There are a few specific teams that have contributed greatly to this surge of underdog success. St Louis has gone 6-1 since May in this role when sporting a better bullpen rating than its opponent. The Mets have gone 4-1. Minnesota is 6-2. It would seem that finding well-rounded teams playing good baseball and playing as underdogs make for solid wagers. Who would’ve figured?! Of course, I’m being sarcastic there, as essentially, that is the foundation of the system. 

Thankfully, the return of the success of the underdog angles is just a part of what has been a very nice start overall for the MLB Bullpen Systems in 2025. We are two months in, and the advantages of using these methodologies are speaking for themselves. Hopefully, you have been taking advantage. 

Before digging into the updated numbers, recall that I have always embraced the idea that better bullpen teams are the stronger wager when assessing the options. They just aren’t accounted for as much as starting pitching by oddsmakers, thus giving bettors value in typically at least 1/3 of games or more. 

What’s the easiest way to use these bullpen ratings? Well, there can be more profitable ways (by ROI) requiring fewer plays, but the easiest method I have now detailed in the very first system below. I have called it fittingly THE EASIEST WAY TO PLAY THE BULLPEN SYSTEM. By simply taking the better-rated bullpen team on my scale and avoiding those -190 or higher favorites that weren’t at least 19% better in winning percentage than the opponent, you would have netted +45.66 units in the 2023 season. It lost about twice as much last season, so I’ve been hoping for a bounce-back year in 2025. We could be on our way to getting that.

Remember, to fully implement these strategies into your daily baseball betting routine, you only need two things: 1) the details of the systems as noted below and 2) VSiN Pro Access to MAKINEN DAILY POWER RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com. You can also have the work of qualifying the angles done for you in our latest VSiN feature called the MLB Analytics Report. No serious baseball bettor should be without it.

Now, here is an update of the various system records with results through Sunday, 5/25: 

The easiest way to play the bullpen system

For the 2025 season, better rated bullpen teams that were not favorites of -190 or higher, or were -190 or higher and had a winning percentage 19% or higher and a starting pitcher edge of at least 20 have gone 374-310 for +2.03 units and a ROI of 0.3% so far in the regular season. We’ve given a little back in each of the last two weeks, but this is still a solid early return compared to what the average bettor playing every MLB game this season theoretically would be down, over -42 units. 

The results of the last couple of weeks have confirmed the reasons as to why I have referred to the above system as the “easiest’ or “quickest” ways to use the bullpen data. It is also why I prefer using greater discernment in my baseball wagering to provide for even bigger edges. This is one of the main reasons we produce such a multi-faceted Analytics Report daily. Part of that report is the MLB Bullpen Systems you’ll see below. I personally am still playing these daily, and as you can see, they are still faring well. 

2025 Importance of Pitching System, Bullpen and Starter:

Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 season so far, I have found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating and starting pitcher rating have gone 75-41 for +23.98 units, and an ROI of 20.7%! To ensure this isn’t a fluke run, I went back and tabulated the results from the 2024 full regular teams, and teams in that same scenario were 189-127 for +35 units and an ROI of 11.1%. This seems to be a good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically, and we are including it on the daily MLB Analytics Reports going forward. Last week was the first time since I introduced this angle that it was negative, -1.88 units. 

Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference between teams is <19%
In the last two regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 307-182 record, but for -118.22 units. This represented an ROI of -24.2%! For ’25, these teams remain off to an uncustomary good start, 42-14 for +11.28 units. This remains a winning year for this angle, but it is still just a handful of heavily priced favorite losses from going negative.

Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than the opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The last two regular seasons for this system finished at a record of 252-103, for +8.01 units. The ROI on this angle was at +2.3% ROI. For ’25, these teams are off to a very strong start, 62-20 for +9.96 units, a ROI of 12.1%. 

Overpriced better bullpen without a big starting pitcher edge angle was the 2023 and 2024 regular seasons’ most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites have gone 160-122, but for -115.88 units in the 2023 and 2024 regular seasons. That represents an ROI of -41.1%, very solid results. So far in 2025, these teams are unusually positive, 47-16 for +9.77 units. However, this system also remains just a few games away from going negative. 

Better bullpen underdog teams are typically solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the last two seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), and we will be looking for a bounce back in ’25. We are in the black once again and riding a four-week winning streak, including 17-10 for +9.51 units last week. For the season, the record is now 129-146 for +2.27 units. 

Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging deeper into the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick ’ems) in the -110 to +144 range, those teams produced a 328-350 record, for +9.84 units (ROI 1.1%) in the full 2024 season. I believe this angle has a bit more merit than the overall bullpen underdog system in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive. For 2025, these teams struggled out of the gate, but are now 114-126 for -2.43 units after four straight winning weeks! 

Worse bullpen teams usually struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. Over the last two regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 428-485 for -78.6 units, an ROI of -8.6%. For this year, they are 66-70 for -2.32 units (ROI -1.7%). Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last two regular seasons with a record of 186-218 for -29.23 units. The ROI on that system was -7.2%. This has been a very consistent angle, so this year’s results (37-32, +6.34 units) are somewhat surprising.

Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks in 2023, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%. For 2024, better bullpen teams on a 3-game winning streak went 200-187 for -64.18 units (-16.6% ROI). This was a massive one-year swing for this system, and it was removed from the Analytics Report. However, I am giving it a chance in 2025 and so far it is 77-57 for +0.69 units, having recovered from a slow start. 

Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks have gone 231-159 for +40.34 units over the last two regular seasons, maintaining remarkable consistency as well. The ROI during that span has been 10.3%! For 2025, it is off to a decent start, 45-33 for +4.09 units, an ROI of 5.2%. However, it did give back 4.4 units last week. 

Again, these simple angles can be qualified each day by utilizing the MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page on VSiN.com or easily found on the MLB Analytics Report. Keep in mind, the bullpen systems are just one small part of a very in-depth handicapping library available to readers. 

Here are the updated key bullpen stats that have been accumulated so far to start the regular season, as well as my current Bullpen Power Ratings.

Key Bullpen Stats (through games of Sunday, 5/25)

Top 5 Bullpen ERAs
1. SAN FRANCISCO: 2.62
2. HOUSTON: 2.75
3. NY METS: 2.82
4. MINNESOTA: 3
5. KANSAS CITY: 3.22 

Worst 5 Bullpen ERAs
30. LA ANGELS: 6.45
29. WASHINGTON: 6.13
28. ATHLETICS: 6.01
27. BALTIMORE: 5.46
26. ARIZONA: 5.24 

Top 5 Bullpen WHIPs
1. SAN FRANCISCO: 1.03
2. MINNESOTA: 1.11
3. HOUSTON: 1.13
4. TORONTO: 1.13
5. NY METS: 1.16 

Worst 5 Bullpen WHIPs
30. LA ANGELS: 1.7
29. ATHLETICS: 1.64
28. WASHINGTON: 1.61
27. BALTIMORE: 1.55
26. MIAMI: 1.5 

Top 5 Bullpen Ks/9 innings
1. TORONTO: 10.3
2. HOUSTON: 10
3. NY YANKEES: 10
4. MINNESOTA: 9.7
5. CLEVELAND: 9.6

Worst 5 Bullpen Ks/9 innings
30. CHICAGO CUBS: 7.4
29. ST LOUIS: 7.4
28. KANSAS CITY: 7.4
27. COLORADO: 7.5
26. PITTSBURGH: 7.8 

Top 5 Bullpen Last 7 Games WHIPs
1. SAN FRANCISCO: 0.81
2. MINNESOTA: 0.95
3. CLEVELAND: 1
4. TORONTO: 1.01
5. TAMPA BAY: 1.03 

Worst 5 Bullpen Last 7 Games WHIPs
30. BALTIMORE: 1.87
29. COLORADO: 1.74
28. SAN DIEGO: 1.74
27. CINCINNATI: 1.73
26. MILWAUKEE: 1.67 

I use a manual process of analyzing daily box scores to build my Bullpen Power Ratings. In most cases, the end number is a reflection of the stats listed above, with great consideration also given to overall talent, injuries, and momentum.

Biggest Movers in SM Bullpen Power Ratings since Monday, 5/19:

Biggest upward movers (PR points)
1. LA ANGELS: +8 points
1. CLEVELAND: +8
3. CHICAGO CUBS: +6
4. NY METS: +5
4. WASHINGTON: +5 

Biggest downward movers (PR points)
1. MILWAUKEE: -12 points
2. ATHLETICS: -8
3. ST LOUIS: -7
3. CINCINNATI: -7
5. PITTSBURGH: -5

Steve’s Current Bullpen Ratings/Ranks (as of 5/26)

Rank – Team – Bullpen PR
1. MINNESOTA: 31
2. HOUSTON: 28
3. NY YANKEES: 27
4. SAN FRANCISCO: 27
5. ATLANTA: 22
6. NY METS: 21
7. CLEVELAND: 20
8. CHICAGO CUBS: 16
9. KANSAS CITY: 16
10. TORONTO: 16
11. TAMPA BAY: 15
12. SAN DIEGO: 12
13. DETROIT: 12
14. LA DODGERS: 11
15. TEXAS: 11
16. BOSTON: 7
17. SEATTLE: 4
18. CINCINNATI: 4
19. ST LOUIS: 3
20. PHILADELPHIA: 2
21. ARIZONA: -1
22. MILWAUKEE: -1
23. BALTIMORE: -3
24. MIAMI: -5
25. CHICAGO WHITE SOX: -10
26. PITTSBURGH: -16
27. WASHINGTON: -19
28. COLORADO: -19
29. LA ANGELS: -23
30. ATHLETICS: -23 

These are sorted first by bullpen ranking and then by overall team power rating. 

As we head into this week’s games, there are two teams on 3+ game winning streaks (TB, STL) and two teams on 3+ game losing skids (TOR, ARI).