MLB Best Bets Today June 7

A full dance card on the diamond is on tap for Belmont Stakes Saturday. Be sure to check out all of the picks and analysis from Mike Somich, Dave Tuley, and Ed Sehon for the big race and support our friends at 1/ST BET with that VSIN200 promo code sign-up bonus.

Back to baseball, we have a lot of games in the 4 p.m. window and the 7 p.m. or later window tonight. Those are the focus for me today, including some really interesting pitching matchups across the board.

This article will run Monday-Saturday and I’ll write up a standalone preview for Sunday Night Baseball on Sundays. This year, we’ll also have MLB best bets from Greg Peterson posted with overnight lines.

My tracking sheet is here. For transparency sake, I also have tracking for my three MLB seasons at VSiN (2024, 2023, 2022).

Odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook because they are widely available to readers and because of some of our betting tools. I highly, highly, highly encourage you to shop around for the best lines. Sometimes they will be at DK. Oftentimes, they will not. Do what you can to shop around and get as much bang for your buck as possible.

Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats.

Here are the MLB best bets today for June 7:

New York Mets (-299, 11) at Colorado Rockies

9:40 p.m. ET

The Mets and Rockies continue their series at Coors Field with a matchup between Clay Holmes and Carson Palmquist. Holmes is a guy that I’ve been following very closely of late. He has a 3.07 ERA with a 3.87 xERA and a 3.87 FIP in his 12 starts over 67.1 innings, which is already the most innings he’s thrown since 2021 and the second-most of his career. He made the transition from reliever to starter and I think we’re starting to see some signs of fatigue.

Holmes was a 65% or higher GB% guy as a reliever, but the ball is leaking up in the zone more frequently with a 54.5% GB%. Since the start of May, Holmes has a 3.44 ERA, but a 5.28 FIP. He only has 23 strikeouts in 36.2 innings over those six starts and has allowed seven home runs. He has allowed a 49.1% Hard Hit% and an 11.8% Barrel% in that span as well.

He’s allowed 10+ hard-hit balls in three of his last four starts, including his last time out at Citi Field against these same Rockies. He has a .288 wOBA against with a .322 xwOBA, as the high ground ball rate is still a saving grace, but most of his other expected metrics grade below average at this point. I think he’s sitting on some bad upcoming starts and a visit to Coors Field might speed up the process.

Palmquist struck out eight Mets last time out for a season high, as he only had six strikeouts in three starts prior to that. He’s a fly ball guy, which is never a good thing at Coors Field. He’s only made one home start and allowed seven runs on 10 hits in 4.1 innings of work to the Phillies. Now he’s facing a repeat opponent for the first time and a group that ranks in the top 10 against LHP in wOBA and wRC+.

I like Over 5.5 at -125 for the 1st 5 here. The Rockies also recently lost a really good defender in SS Ezequiel Tovar, which I think hurts them even more, especially with a pitch-to-contact guy like Palmquist, even if he is a fly ball guy.

Pick: Mets/Rockies 1st 5 Over 5.5 (-125)

Baltimore Orioles (-126, 10.5) at Sacramento Athletics

10:05 p.m. ET

Pretty simple handicap here in this game that doesn’t really need a whole lot of explanation. Luis Severino just gave up eight runs to the Twins in his last home start. He has now allowed 37 runs on 54 hits in 46.1 innings at home. The wild thing is that he’s allowed four runs in 31 innings on the road.

But, Severino seems to hate pitching in Sacramento and it has to be mental at this point. He’s allowed a .284/.344/.442 slash with a .344 wOBA in his home efforts and has given up 22 extra-base hits. He has allowed 8, 8, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, and 1 runs in his home outings. I can’t help but take a look at Orioles 1st 5 Team Total Over 2.5 runs here at -120. The juice seems very reasonable for a game with a total of 10.5 in a really good hitter’s park with a pitcher that has had a myriad of issues at home.

We also have first-pitch temps in the mid-80s with a helping breeze blowing out to left center. That can only help the cause.

Pick: Orioles 1st 5 Team Total Over 2.5 (-120)