Betting on the NCAA Baseball Tournament Super Regionals:
After a regional round of the NCAA tournament that delivered drama, chaos, and excitement, college baseball continues its upward trajectory among the sports betting hierarchy. How it is happening is a result of the unexpected.
The SEC began tournament action with plenty of confidence, sending a record 13 teams and eight regional hosts into the field. Now, as the tournament moves to the super regionals, only four are still alive, meaning all that previous support hangs on the future of just Arkansas, LSU, Tennessee, and Auburn.
The super regional matchup between the Razorbacks and Volunteers will also lessen the aura to a certain extent. So, at best, only three from the conference will move to Omaha.
That is certainly under the 4.5 total of SEC teams in the College World Series I wanted to see from books.
Failing performances by the favorites, Vanderbilt, Texas, Georgia, and Mississippi, who hosted with plus odds, doesn’t mean the conference’s autopsy report needs to be written just yet.
LSU (+310), Arkansas (+370), and Tennessee (+650) remain at the top of the CWS odds board, with Auburn (+1200) close by, and if one of them does win it all, the SEC still reaches its ultimate goal.
Keep in mind, what prevented Vanderbilt, Texas and Georgia from moving on were their inherent issues.
The Commodores’ mediocre offense couldn’t produce enough during tight regional games. The Longhorns came in banged up and never recovered from blowing a late lead to UTSA. The Bulldogs, too reliant on the long ball, had their power neutralized by Duke’s pitching.
If one of the remaining SEC teams does win it all, then the chatter about the conference’s disappointing opening round will easily be forgotten.
The SEC Moving Forward
Auburn is going to get some interest since it represents a relative longshot at this portion of the tournament. The Tigers never got the same media and betting attention as others in the SEC, yet they coasted to an easy regional win.
The fourth-ranked national seed’s offense (.305 batting average, .411 OB%, and a league-lowest 422 Ks) is comparable to the Razorbacks’.
Look for Auburn’s C/OF Ike Irish playing at a Major League stadium near you as early as next season.
Auburn’s middling pitching staff and 4.71 ERA, close to a run higher than the others, kept it in a separate tier from Arkansas, LSU, and Tennessee.
LSU is currently the lowest team on the futures board because bookmakers assume they will play in Omaha, while the prices on Arkansas and Tennessee are contingent on who wins their matchup.
From a futures perspective at these odds, there is no need to back either the Hogs or Vols now. The wiser approach is to play one as the winner of this super regional and then reassess the eight-team odds board for the Omaha portion of the tournament.
For those who have futures tickets on either, take advantage of the tournament’s format and make a hedge on the other side to win the super regional. It is one of the better situations to monetize a futures ticket.
If a bettor already has a ticket on the Vols, backing Arkansas now as a slight favorite won’t deplete too much of Tennessee’s possible future winnings. Conversely, playing the Vols at even money can protect the initial investment for those with an Arkansas ticket (ranging from +400 to +1000).
These are two of the best teams playing in an elimination series before the CWS even begins, so hedging here makes sense for those inclined to follow that ideology.
The super regional between the two should be, well, super. The primary storyline will be the coaching matchup between Arkansas’ Dave Van Horn going against his former assistant Tony Vitello.
To put it in college basketball terms, it will be like Dean Smith going against Roy Williams or Mike Krzyzewski squaring off against Bobby Knight.
The ACC Moving Forward
After stepping on Oklahoma in the elimination game of the Chapel Hill regional, the Diamond Heels (+700) confirmed their status as the best team outside of the SEC.
Having two legitimate aces atop the rotation with Jake Knapp and Jason DeCaro puts UNC in a great position to defeat Arizona (+4000) in a short series.
Florida State (+1300) must make one of the longest trips in college baseball, going to Corvallis for the super regional. However, the Seminoles can start off strong by throwing Jamie Arnold in the opening game.
Duke (+2600) should get some play in the futures market since they are still available with attractive odds, and with Murray State (+11000) trotting into Durham, there is clearly a track to Omaha.
The conference will definitely send a surprise representative to the CWS since Louisville (+2800) is hosting Miami (+4200). One of these teams in Omaha is a great example of what betting college baseball can offer, since both were hovering around triple-digit odds prior to the tournament.
The Rest of the Pack
It might be harsh to lump a Big Ten school, Big 12 teams and the country’s top independent Oregon State (+1300) and arguably the best mid-major (Coastal Carolina +1500) into the group that includes long shots Murray State and UTSA (+3700), nonetheless, the SEC and ACC drive the college baseball bus until someone unseats them.
UCLA (+2000) gets to showcase its phenomenal sophomore Roch Cholowsky when it hosts UTSA. If the Bruins trip up the Roadrunners, it will be the first time a Big Ten team appeared in Omaha since Michigan did it in 2019.
The Big 12 has a much harder path to the CWS since Arizona and its star Brendan Summerhill travel to UNC, while West Virginia (+6000) will have to experience the craziness of Alex Box Stadium in Baton Rouge.
The Chanticleers didn’t have to face an SEC team in the regionals since East Carolina knocked off Florida, but now they must head off to the Plains for the hostile environment that awaits them during a Friday night game.
Remaining Value on the Futures Board
The best option for a futures play at this point with value in mind is Duke at 26-1. Those odds give bettors the chance to have a somewhat longshot ticket to play with come the CWS.
Bookmakers don’t need to reduce the Blue Devils’ odds too much because the narrative surrounding Chris Pollard’s failures in the super regional round (0-3) may scare off public bettors. This is the first time Duke has hosted one.
The 26-1 odds also don’t seem to take into account an expected win this round as much as the pricing for UNC, Auburn, or UCLA indicates.
Super Plays
Corvallis Super Regional
Oregon State -115 Florida State -115
Auburn Super Regional
Auburn -145 Coastal Carolina +115
Louisville Super Regional
Louisville -160 Miami FL +130
Durham Super Regional
Duke -380 Murray State +290
Baton Rouge Super Regional
LSU -400 West Virginia +300
Los Angeles Super Regional
UCLA -180 UTSA +145
Fayetteville Super Regional
Arkansas -130 Tennessee +100
Chapel Hill Super Regional
North Carolina -330 Arizona +250
I am doubling up on the Fayetteville Super Regional. First is the -130 series win for Arkansas. The Hogs grade out as the best team in college baseball, and this is a chance, albeit against another true contender, to play them at home for a cheap price. Also, I’m dealing with the juice and playing Arkansas (-170) to win the opening game on Saturday.
Zach Root, off a strong performance against Creighton, will start on the mound in front of a raucous home crowd, likely against Liam Doyle.
Doyle, the fiery lefthander, appears to be the best pitcher in the country. However, he had to go twice during the regionals, including 2.1 innings on Monday to close out the series. His worst performance of the season came a few weeks ago in Fayetteville, where his emotions and the Arkansas bats got the best of him.
The Beavers (-115) at home are also worth a wager, even with an Arnold start on the horizon. Homefield in Corvallis carries some significance here. If this same independent OSU team with its current offensive metrics played in the ACC, the odds would side more with the Beavers.
OSU is eighth in RPI, followed right behind by FSU in 9th. The Seminoles even have somewhat of an advantage in the RPI compared to the Beavers since they got more home games and ACC contests to boost the strength of schedule.
The Beavers’ response to a disappointing loss in their opening regional game, outscoring opponents 50-6 over the next four contests, bodes well for them.
Over the past two seasons, home teams in the super regional series have gone 12-4.
I am wagering on Miami (+130), a road team and a dog. The host Cardinals were the beneficiaries of the Vanderbilt collapse. Louisville won by beating East Tennessee State at the start of the regional and against a tired Wright State squad to end it. In between was a 3-2 victory against the Commodores and their struggling offense.
Meanwhile, the Hurricanes, who stumbled into the Hattiesburg Regional (1-6 over their last seven games), emerged victorious and now look like the better team. Pitching-wise, the Hurricanes can start AJ Ciscar and Griffin Hugus and call on Brian Walters to close it out.
These two ACC foes didn’t meet during the regular season.
